The UK-UNC Breakdown

UK hosts UNC for what is arguably (or not) the biggest scheduled non conference game of the year. UK and UNC are number one and number two in all times wins, respectively, and are both in a foot race to 2000. Both teams have elite type talent and the whole world will be watching to see how Wall plays against the home state team that didn’t want him. I usually do not break games down, but this seems to be a special occasion and we all know special occasions call for special measures.  So my quest today is to break down the individual parts of the game then put it all together for the possible outcome.

Both teams are big and talented underneath. UNC has more long bodies than UK but hasn’t really gone to all of them. UK has Patterson. That alone says enough but UK also has Cousins who can go off for 12 in a very short time, can bring a solid Orton in and also has vets in Stevenson and Harrelson at its disposal. Advantage: UK

Both teams are fast and talented out front. UNC is young. UK is younger. UK has the Wall factor. The Wall factor is magnified when you consider that this is against UNC and he was built for games like this. Is he ready? I’m not sure but I think he will rise to the occasion under the white hot lights. My real question is with Bledsoe, as I seriously doubt that he is ready and UK’s options after Bledsoe are Dodson and Miller. Advantage: Even

But unfortunately the individual parts of a team do not define it as a whole. When you consider that all the players who will get time for UNC played in at least one title game, you have to give them a huge team edge. Most think this game will come down to post play but I think it will come down to the team that can provide the most pressure out front. The absolute best way to negate a post up team with man to man is to pressure the passers out front. Minimizing good passes in to the post means minimizing good post plays opportunities and keeping your big guys out of foul trouble. I feel strongly that UNC is better prepared for this than UK. I also think (hope) the game comes down to the final 8 possession series of the game. But, again, in that situation where talent is almost equal you must give experience the nod.

In the end, I think the UK players want to want this game more, but at this point they seriously do not know how to want it more. UNC makes its free throws down the stretch and wins by 8.